Poster Presentation 29th Lorne Cancer Conference 2017

Competing Risks Analysis of Microsatellite Instability as a Prognostic Factor in Colorectal Cancer (#278)

Wei Tatt Toh 1 , Pierre Chapuis 1 2 , Les Bokey 3 , Charles Chan 2 , Kevin Spring 4 , Owen Dent 1
  1. Discipline of Surgery, Sydney University, Sydney, Australia
  2. Concord Hospital, Concord, NSW, Australia
  3. Liverpool Hospital, Liverpool, NSW, Australia
  4. Ingham Institute of Applied Research, Liverpool, NSW, Australia

Background

Despite an extensive literature suggesting that high microsatellite instability (MSI-H) enhances survival and protects against recurrence after colorectal cancer (CRC) resection such effects remain controversial as many studies show no or only a weak bivariate association or no multivariable association. This study examined the association between MSI-H and recurrence and death due to CRC adjusting for death due to other cause as a competing risk.

 

Method

Data were drawn from a prospective hospital registry of consecutive resections for CRC, which contains detailed clinical, operative, pathology, adjuvant therapy and follow-up information. The cumulative incidence of recurrence and CRC-specific death were evaluated by competing risks regression.

 

Results

Among 1009 patients who had a resection between August 2002 and December 2008 and were followed to at least December 2013 there were 114 (11.3%) with MSI-H. After potentially curative resection and adjustment for 19 other prognostic variables and accounting for non-CRC death as a competing risk there was no association between MSI-H and recurrence (HR 0.8 95% CI 0.42-1.57) or CRC-specific death (HR 0.73 CI 0.39-1.35). For palliative resections there was no association between MSI-H and CRC-specific death (HR 0.65, CI 0.21-2.04). For both curative and palliative resections MSI-H had a bivariate association with non-CRC death (HR 1.55 CI 1.04-2.30 and HR3.80 CI 1.32-11.00 respectively) but this disappeared in multivariable models.

 

Conclusion

These results contradict the suggested protective association between MSI-H and recurrence or survival reported in other studies. MSI status may not be an independent prognostic variable for CRC.